November 2026 Technical Dinner Meeting

Hatch Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) results, dataset, methods, ranges achieved, and insights from analyzing the dataset All contingency setting methods start with AACE RP40 “Contingency Estimating Principles”, with the foremost rule being fit for purpose like all project controls. The “fit for purpose” direction provides professionals a degree of latitude when performing QRAs (Quantitative Risk Analysis). Within AACE there are numerous different methods of conducting QRAs (Quantitative Risk Analysis) including AACEi RPs: · Parametric options 42R, 113R and 119R; · Simulation based options such as 44R, 57R, 65R, 118R and 123R; and, · Combination parametric-simulation of 117r. Within some circles there is much debate over the advantages and disadvantages of each option. Some have declared certain methods best, with or without time caveats, while others may have vested interests, and still others who continue to relying on AACE 17R Cost Estimate Classification systems to anchor what a “typical” contingency ought to be. Often what is lacking is simple aggregated data on the results of QRAs by method. At Hatch our global team of Risk Management professionals complete QRAs around the world, for all types of projects, and at all different levels of development and execution. Being client focused, Hatch is not wed to a single AACE methodology. While advice is given to clients what methodology best suits their project’s current needs and budget we follow client direction. Hatch routinely completes multiple QRA methods for a single QRA report and frequently completes multiple QRAs on projects as they progress through their development stages. A trove of data! This paper will explore the results of Hatch’s QRA dataset to share the methods used, the predictive ranges achieved, and share insights from analyzing the dataset. This is a “must attend” session for QRA professionals who are interested in seeing real data on how industry is doing for QRAs. Speakers: Matthew Schoenhardt Location: CSPACE Marda Loop - 4th floor RGO "Treehouse" boardroom Time: 5:30 PM – 8:00 PM Networking and Dinner 5:30 to 6:30 Presentation @ 6:30 Early Bird - Member: $20 / Non-Member: $30 Regular - Member: $35 / Non-Member: $45 Students - $15 LinkedIn: AACE Chinook-Calgary Section: | LinkedIn Website: Home - AACE Chinook Calgary Section (aacei.org) Email: [email protected]