Discovery Series: Cool Talks in Cool Places

Dr. Karthik Balaguru (PNNL): When Rivers Fall from the Sky: Predicting Atmospheric River Risks Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that can carry more water than some major rivers—moving across the Pacific before delivering intense rain and snow to the West Coast. They replenish water supplies, but they can also trigger flooding, landslides, and widespread power outages. Because relatively few extreme events have been observed, scientists have limited opportunities to understand the full range of risks these storms can create. Using artificial intelligence, researchers are developing new ways to explore those possibilities. DeepAR generates realistic, high-resolution simulations of atmospheric rivers, creating large ensembles of plausible storms that can reveal how their paths, intensity, and rainfall may vary. A companion model, AR-Outage, connects atmospheric river conditions with decades of weather and power outage records to estimate where and when these storms are most likely to disrupt the electrical grid. Together, these tools offer a new lens on a growing challenge: not simply asking what happened during past storms, but exploring what could possibly happen. By combining environmental data, machine learning, and infrastructure records, this work can help communities and utilities better understand regional risks, prepare for extreme events, and build a more resilient future. Agenda: 11:30–12:00 | Lunch & informal networking 12:00–12:40 | Speaker presentation 12:40–1:00 | Audience Q&A About the Speaker: Karthik Balaguru joined Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in 2011 and is currently an earth scientist and lead for the Coastal Modeling and Resilience team within the Coastal Sciences Division. In this role, Balaguru studies upper-ocean dynamics, air-sea interactions, and weather hazards, such as tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers. He is also interested in developing artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML)-based approaches to model natural hazards and their impact on human systems, including critical infrastructure. About the Discovery Series: The Discovery Series brings together researchers, innovators, and leaders from across Washington's public and private sectors who want to stay on top of the important advancements being made in our state. Each program includes lunch, networking time, a Q&A session, and a chance to meet the speaker. Thank you to our event sponsors: Accenture, Clark Nuber, McKinsey, PNNL, Slalom, University of Washington, and Washington State University