Navigating Great Power Rivalry

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's growing assertiveness, and shifting patterns of global leadership have complicated the strategic choices facing small and middle powers. Longstanding assumptions about deterrence, alliances, economic interdependence, and strategic autonomy are being reassessed as states confront increasing geopolitical uncertainty and intensifying great power competition. Supported by the Security & Defence Initiative of the PLuS Alliance (S&D+), this roundtable brings together researchers from Arizona State University, King's College London, and UNSW Sydney, alongside scholars, analysts, and policymakers from Australia, for a comparative discussion of how states navigate increasingly turbulent international environments. The discussion builds on an ongoing international research project examining the conditions under which smaller and middle powers succeed or fail in preserving security, sovereignty, and strategic flexibility amid great power rivalry. The roundtable is intended not only as a forum for presenting emerging ideas, but also as an opportunity for mutual learning and exchange. Australia’s experience of adapting to a rapidly changing regional security environment offers valuable insights for understanding strategic resilience under conditions of heightened uncertainty. By bringing together perspectives from Europe, North America, and the Indo-Pacific, the discussion seeks to identify common challenges, compare regional experiences, and generate new thinking on resilience, alliance management, strategic hedging, and the future of international order. The event will combine brief opening remarks from the three members of the project team with a broader discussion among participants, fostering a candid exchange of views between academic researchers, policy practitioners, and security experts.