Cognitive bias in risk analysts

State risk forecasts are crucial for allocating resources to address major domestic and international threats—from pandemics and climate change to global catastrophic risks. However, these forecasts largely rely on human judgment, which is often susceptible to cognitive distortions. Join us for a talk by Bas Heerma van Voss about his recent research on the cognitive biases of national risk analysts. Bas will explore how national risk analysts are affected by confirmation bias, how their judgment compares to control groups, and what we can do about it. Crucially, he will discuss findings showing that cost-effective, one-shot debiasing training interventions can meaningfully reduce these cognitive biases and improve expert forecasting. Being less cognitive biased is useful for all of us in everyday decision-making, which is reason enough to come. But when it comes to existential and national risks, the stakes for unbiased reporting and accurate institutional foresight are exponentially higher. About the Speaker Bas Heerma van Voss has conducted specialized research into how cognitive biases affect national risk analysis and how targeted interventions can sharpen decision-making under uncertainty. In this talk, he will break down his latest findings on expert blind spots and practical ways to lessen them. Who is This For? Anyone with an interest in risk analysis, cognitive biases, forecasting, or decision-making. Anyone who wants to be less cognitive biased themselves Anyone interested in existential risks Event Details 📍 Where: Headquarters EA Netherlands: Van Diemenstraat 92, Amsterdam ⏰ When: Thursday, October 29, from 18:30 to 19:30